Freiburg vs Wolfsburg Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Germany - Bundesliga Regular Season - 32 Europa-Park-Stadion· Freiburg im Breisgau Sunday, May 3, 2026 17:30

Freiburg PPG 1.87

1-1 HIT MostLikelyScore

Wolfsburg PPG 1.00

Home· +30.4% 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Freiburg face Wolfsburg in Germany - Bundesliga on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Freiburg a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Wolfsburg 24%, so Freiburg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Freiburg and 1.4 for Wolfsburg (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Freiburg are averaging 1.87 points per game versus 1.00 for Wolfsburg. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +30.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 52.6%

Odds: 2.48 EV: +30.4%

Draw 23.8%

Odds: 3.50 EV: -16.7%

Away 23.6%

Odds: 2.62 EV: -38.2%

Model lean: Over 2.5

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 67.0% Odds: 1.65 +10.5%

Over 3.5 45.3% Odds: 2.60 +17.8%

BTTS 66.6% Odds: 1.53 +1.9%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✔

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 2-0 ✘

4th 3-1 ✘

5th 2-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Freiburg

2.08

Wolfsburg

1.37

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 +10.5% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Home(+30.4%)

League Track Record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5/Under 73%

BTTS/No 76%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 1.8%

Bet Hit 63% (16 bets)

Verdict & Form

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.87) vs P(Home)=52.6%