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Freiburg vs Wolfsburg Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Matchday 32 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 17:30

Freiburg

PPG 1.87 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDLW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Wolfsburg

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 63% chance

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a clear edge.

+10.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-14.3%0-23.0%0-31.4%0-4+0.6%1 1-06.6%1-19.0%1-26.2%1-32.8%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.9%2-19.4%2-26.4%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.8%3-16.5%3-24.5%3-32.0%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-15.5%4+-23.8%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.6% 40.3% 2.48 +30.4%

Draw 23.8% 28.6% 3.50 -16.7%

Away win 23.6% 38.2% 2.62 -38.2%

Over 2.5 67.0% 60.6% 1.65 +10.5%

Over 3.5 45.3% 38.5% 2.60 +17.8%

BTTS 66.6% 65.4% 1.53 +1.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 11.9%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob66.6%

H 53% / xG 2.1-1.4 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 9.0%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 6.9%

#4 3–1 6.5%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Freiburg2.1

Wolfsburg1.4

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 45.3%

Form & verdict PPG

FREIBURG · PPG 1.87

WOLFSBURG · PPG 1.00

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

63%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.87) vs P(Home)=52.6%

Win probability 1X2

Freiburg (H) 52.6%

ODDS 2.48 · IMPLIED 40.3% EV +30.4%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -16.7%

Wolfsburg (A) 23.6%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -38.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Freiburg face Wolfsburg in Germany - Bundesliga on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Freiburg a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Wolfsburg 24%, so Freiburg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Freiburg and 1.4 for Wolfsburg (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Freiburg are averaging 1.87 points per game versus 1.00 for Wolfsburg. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +30.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Freiburg vs Wolfsburg Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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