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Real Betis vs Real Oviedo Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Regular Season - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 16:30

Real Betis

PPG 1.69 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Real Oviedo

PPG 0.63 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 64.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-16.2%0-22.9%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.7%1-111.0%1-25.2%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.4%2-19.8%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.2%3-15.8%3-22.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-13.9%4+-21.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.6% 64.9% 1.54 -14.4%

Draw 26.5% 24.4% 4.10 +8.6%

Away win 18.0% 17.4% 5.75 +3.5%

Over 2.5 51.2% 54.1% 1.85 -5.3%

Over 3.5 29.1% 31.3% 3.20 -6.9%

BTTS 52.3% 51.3% 1.95 +2.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 15.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.3%

H 56% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–0 10.4%

#3 1–0 11.7%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Betis1.8

Real Oviedo0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.1%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL BETIS · PPG 1.69

REAL OVIEDO · PPG 0.63

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.69) vs P(Home)=55.6%

Win probability 1X2

Real Betis (H) 55.6%

ODDS 1.54 · IMPLIED 64.9% EV -14.4%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +8.6%

Real Oviedo (A) 18.0%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +3.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Betis face Real Oviedo in Spain - La Liga on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Betis a 56% chance, the draw 27% and Real Oviedo 18%, so Real Betis are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Real Betis and 0.9 for Real Oviedo (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Betis are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 0.63 for Real Oviedo. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +8.6%. This match finished 3-0.

Real Betis vs Real Oviedo Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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