Monchengladbach vs Dortmund Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Germany - Bundesliga Regular Season - 32 Borussia-Park· Monchengladbach Sunday, May 3, 2026 15:30

Monchengladbach PPG 1.20

1-0 MISS

Dortmund PPG 1.93

Away· -0.6% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Monchengladbach face Dortmund in Germany - Bundesliga on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Monchengladbach a 22% chance, the draw 26% and Dortmund 52%, so Dortmund are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Monchengladbach and 1.8 for Dortmund (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Monchengladbach are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.93 for Dortmund. This match finished 1-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 21.8%

Odds: 3.60 EV: -21.5%

Draw 26.0%

Odds: 3.75 EV: -2.5%

Away 52.3%

Odds: 1.90 EV: -0.6%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 57.2% Odds: 1.57 -10.2%

Over 3.5 34.8% Odds: 2.40 -16.5%

BTTS 58.8% Odds: 1.50 -11.8%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-2 ✘

3rd 0-2 ✘

4th 0-1 ✘

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Monchengladbach

1.14

Dortmund

1.84

Model SuggestionBTTS -11.8% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -11.8% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 

League Track Record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5/Under 73%

BTTS/No 76%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 1.8%

Bet Hit 63% (16 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.93) vs Home AVERAGE (1.20)