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Monchengladbach vs Dortmund Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Regular Season - 32 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 15:30

Monchengladbach

PPG 1.20 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Dortmund

PPG 1.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 58.8% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-19.4%0-28.6%0-35.3%0-4+3.7%1 1-05.8%1-110.6%1-29.8%1-36.0%1-4+4.2%2 2-03.3%2-16.1%2-25.6%2-33.4%2-4+2.4%3 3-01.2%3-12.3%3-22.1%3-31.3%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.8% 27.8% 3.60 -21.5%

Draw 26.0% 26.7% 3.75 -2.5%

Away win 52.3% 52.6% 1.90 -0.6%

Over 2.5 57.2% 63.7% 1.57 -10.2%

Over 3.5 34.8% 41.7% 2.40 -16.5%

BTTS 58.8% 66.7% 1.50 -11.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob58.8%

A 52% / xG 1.1-1.8 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 1–2 9.8%

#3 0–2 8.6%

#4 0–1 9.4%

#5 0–0 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Monchengladbach1.1

Dortmund1.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.2% · O3.5 PROB 34.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MONCHENGLADBACH · PPG 1.20

DORTMUND · PPG 1.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.93) vs Home AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Monchengladbach (H) 21.8%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -21.5%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -2.5%

Dortmund (A) 52.3%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -0.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Monchengladbach face Dortmund in Germany - Bundesliga on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Monchengladbach a 22% chance, the draw 26% and Dortmund 52%, so Dortmund are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Monchengladbach and 1.8 for Dortmund (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Monchengladbach are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.93 for Dortmund. This match finished 1-0.

Monchengladbach vs Dortmund Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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