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Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Regular Season - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 14:15

Getafe

PPG 1.31 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Rayo Vallecano

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.1%0-111.6%0-25.2%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.0%1-113.3%1-25.9%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.6%2-17.6%2-23.4%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.3%3-12.9%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.1%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.6% 52.6% 1.90 -24.8%

Draw 34.2% 31.3% 3.20 +9.4%

Away win 26.2% 23.0% 4.35 +14.0%

Over 2.5 33.3% 37.0% 2.70 -10.1%

Over 3.5 14.9% 18.2% 5.50 -18.1%

BTTS 42.1% 43.5% 2.30 -3.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 15.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob42.1%

H 40% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 33% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 13.1%

#3 1–0 15.0%

#4 0–1 11.6%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Getafe1.1

Rayo Vallecano0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.3% · O3.5 PROB 14.9%

Form & verdict PPG

GETAFE · PPG 1.31

RAYO VALLECANO · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.31) > Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Getafe (H) 39.6%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -24.8%

Draw 34.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +9.4%

Rayo Vallecano (A) 26.2%

ODDS 4.35 · IMPLIED 23.0% EV +14.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Getafe face Rayo Vallecano in Spain - La Liga on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Getafe a 40% chance, the draw 34% and Rayo Vallecano 26%, so Getafe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Getafe and 0.9 for Rayo Vallecano (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Getafe are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 0.75 for Rayo Vallecano. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +14.0%. This match finished 0-2.

Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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