Sankt Pauli vs FSV Mainz Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Germany - Bundesliga Regular Season - 32 Millerntor-Stadion· Hamburg Sunday, May 3, 2026 13:30

Sankt Pauli PPG 1.13

1-2 HIT CS2

FSV Mainz PPG 1.13

Over3.5· +5.8% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Sankt Pauli face FSV Mainz in Germany - Bundesliga on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sankt Pauli a 32% chance, the draw 29% and FSV Mainz 39%, so FSV Mainz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Sankt Pauli and 1.4 for FSV Mainz (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sankt Pauli are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 1.13 for FSV Mainz. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.8%. This match finished 1-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 32.1%

Odds: 2.70 EV: -13.3%

Draw 29.4%

Odds: 3.30 EV: -3.0%

Away 38.5%

Odds: 2.54 EV: -2.2%

Model lean: BTTS

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 50.7% Odds: 2.05 +3.9%

Over 3.5 28.6% Odds: 3.70 +5.8%

BTTS 56.6% Odds: 1.80 +1.9%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-2 ✔

3rd 0-0 ✘

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 0-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Sankt Pauli

1.28

FSV Mainz

1.42

Model SuggestionBTTS +1.9% ROI TRACKS: BTTS
Tracked ROI market: BTTS. 
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+5.8%)

League Track Record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5/Under 73%

BTTS/No 76%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 1.8%

Bet Hit 63% (16 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.13), Away AVERAGE (1.13)