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Sankt Pauli vs FSV Mainz Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Matchday 32 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:30

Sankt Pauli

PPG 1.13 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

FSV Mainz

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 56.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-19.5%0-26.8%0-33.2%0-4+1.6%1 1-08.6%1-112.2%1-28.7%1-34.1%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.5%2-17.8%2-25.6%2-32.6%2-4+1.3%3 3-02.4%3-13.3%3-22.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.4%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.1% 37.0% 2.70 -13.3%

Draw 29.4% 30.3% 3.30 -3.0%

Away win 38.5% 39.4% 2.54 -2.2%

Over 2.5 50.7% 48.8% 2.05 +3.9%

Over 3.5 28.6% 27.0% 3.70 +5.8%

BTTS 56.6% 55.6% 1.80 +1.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 11.9%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob56.6%

D 29% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–2✓ 8.7%

#3 0–0 6.7%

#4 2–1 7.8%

#5 0–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sankt Pauli1.3

FSV Mainz1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SANKT PAULI · PPG 1.13

FSV MAINZ · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

56%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.13), Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Sankt Pauli (H) 32.1%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -13.3%

Draw 29.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -3.0%

FSV Mainz (A) 38.5%

ODDS 2.54 · IMPLIED 39.4% EV -2.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sankt Pauli face FSV Mainz in Germany - Bundesliga on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sankt Pauli a 32% chance, the draw 29% and FSV Mainz 39%, so FSV Mainz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Sankt Pauli and 1.4 for FSV Mainz (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sankt Pauli are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 1.13 for FSV Mainz. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.8%. This match finished 1-2.

Sankt Pauli vs FSV Mainz Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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