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Riga FC vs Liepaja Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 10 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Riga FC

PPG 2.33 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Liepaja

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 73.3% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-12.6%0-21.6%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-05.8%1-16.9%1-24.1%1-31.7%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.6%2-19.1%2-25.4%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.6%3-17.9%3-24.7%3-31.9%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-08.1%4+-19.7%4+-25.8%4+-32.3%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.7% 74.1% 1.35 -10.0%

Draw 18.9% 21.7% 4.60 -13.1%

Away win 14.4% 14.3% 7.00 +0.8%

Over 2.5 73.3% 67.6% 1.48 +8.5%

Over 3.5 52.9% 45.5% 2.20 +16.4%

BTTS 65.7% 59.9% 1.67 +9.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 77%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob65.7%

H 67% / xG 2.6-1.2 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.1%

#2 1–1 6.9%

#3 3–1 7.9%

#4 2–0 7.6%

#5 3–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Riga FC2.6

Liepaja1.2

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.3% · O3.5 PROB 52.9%

Form & verdict PPG

RIGA FC · PPG 2.33

LIEPAJA · PPG 1.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.33) > Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Riga FC (H) 66.7%

ODDS 1.35 · IMPLIED 74.1% EV -10.0%

Draw 18.9%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -13.1%

Liepaja (A) 14.4%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +0.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Riga FC face Liepaja in Latvia - Virsliga on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Riga FC a 67% chance, the draw 19% and Liepaja 14%, so Riga FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Riga FC and 1.2 for Liepaja (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Riga FC are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.75 for Liepaja. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +16.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Riga FC vs Liepaja Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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