Riga FC vs Liepaja Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Latvia - Virsliga Regular Season - 10 Skonto stadions· Riga Sunday, May 3, 2026 13:00

Riga FC PPG 2.33

1-0 MISS

Liepaja PPG 1.75

Over3.5· +16.4% ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Riga FC face Liepaja in Latvia - Virsliga on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Riga FC a 67% chance, the draw 19% and Liepaja 14%, so Riga FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Riga FC and 1.2 for Liepaja (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Riga FC are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.75 for Liepaja. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +16.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 66.7%

Odds: 1.35 EV: -10.0%

Draw 18.9%

Odds: 4.60 EV: -13.1%

Away 14.4%

Odds: 7.00 EV: +0.8%

Model lean: Over 2.5

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 73.3% Odds: 1.48 +8.5%

Over 3.5 52.9% Odds: 2.20 +16.4%

BTTS 65.7% Odds: 1.67 +9.7%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-1 ✘

2nd 1-1 ✘

3rd 3-1 ✘

4th 2-0 ✘

5th 3-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Riga FC

2.61

Liepaja

1.20

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 +8.5% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+16.4%)

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.33) > Away GOOD (1.75)