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Hutnik Krakow vs Warta Poznan Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Regular Season - 30 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 12:30

Hutnik Krakow

PPG 1.86 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Warta Poznan

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.8% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-18.6%0-25.8%0-32.6%0-4+1.2%1 1-08.9%1-112.1%1-28.2%1-33.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.2%2-18.4%2-25.7%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.9%3-13.9%3-22.7%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.9%4+-21.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.4% 36.4% 2.75 +0.1%

Draw 29.1% 33.3% 3.00 -12.7%

Away win 34.4% 43.5% 2.30 -20.9%

Over 2.5 52.0% 54.1% 1.85 -3.8%

Over 3.5 29.9% 30.8% 3.25 -2.8%

BTTS 57.8% 59.9% 1.67 -3.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob57.8%

D 29% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 8.2%

#4 0–0 6.3%

#5 1–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hutnik Krakow1.4

Warta Poznan1.4

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.0% · O3.5 PROB 29.9%

Form & verdict PPG

HUTNIK KRAKOW · PPG 1.86

WARTA POZNAN · PPG 1.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.86), Away GOOD (1.71)

Win probability 1X2

Hutnik Krakow (H) 36.4%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +0.1%

Draw 29.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -12.7%

Warta Poznan (A) 34.4%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -20.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hutnik Krakow face Warta Poznan in Poland - II Liga - East on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hutnik Krakow a 36% chance, the draw 29% and Warta Poznan 34%, so Hutnik Krakow are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Hutnik Krakow and 1.4 for Warta Poznan (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hutnik Krakow are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.71 for Warta Poznan. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +0.1%. This match finished 0-1.

Hutnik Krakow vs Warta Poznan Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Match Preview & Prediction

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