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Celta Vigo vs Elche Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Regular Season - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 12:00

Celta Vigo

PPG 1.06 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Elche

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 58.2% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-17.1%0-24.3%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.5%1-111.5%1-27.0%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.7%2-19.4%2-25.7%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.2%3-15.1%3-23.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.0%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 57.8% 1.73 -21.5%

Draw 27.9% 26.3% 3.80 +6.0%

Away win 26.7% 22.5% 4.45 +18.8%

Over 2.5 54.1% 58.8% 1.70 -8.0%

Over 3.5 31.8% 36.4% 2.75 -12.6%

BTTS 58.2% 59.9% 1.67 -2.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 15.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob58.2%

H 45% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 9.5%

#4 2–0 7.7%

#5 0–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Celta Vigo1.6

Elche1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.1% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CELTA VIGO · PPG 1.06

ELCHE · PPG 0.44

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.06) > Away POOR (0.44)

Win probability 1X2

Celta Vigo (H) 45.4%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -21.5%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +6.0%

Elche (A) 26.7%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV +18.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Celta Vigo face Elche in Spain - La Liga on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Celta Vigo a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Elche 27%, so Celta Vigo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Celta Vigo and 1.2 for Elche (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Celta Vigo are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 0.44 for Elche. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +18.8%. This match finished 3-1.

Celta Vigo vs Elche Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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