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Celta Vigo vs Elche Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 12:00

Celta Vigo

PPG 1.06 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLDW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Elche

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 59% chance

Model probability 58.2% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-17.1%0-24.3%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.5%1-111.5%1-27.0%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.7%2-19.4%2-25.7%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.2%3-15.1%3-23.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.0%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 57.8% 1.73 -21.5%

Draw 27.9% 26.3% 3.80 +6.0%

Away win 26.7% 22.5% 4.45 +18.8%

Over 2.5 54.1% 58.8% 1.70 -8.0%

Over 3.5 31.8% 36.4% 2.75 -12.6%

BTTS 58.2% 59.9% 1.67 -2.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 94 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob58.2%

H 45% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 9.5%

#4 2–0 7.7%

#5 0–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Celta Vigo1.6

Elche1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.1% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CELTA VIGO · PPG 1.06

ELCHE · PPG 0.44

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

59%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.06) > Away POOR (0.44)

Win probability 1X2

Celta Vigo (H) 45.4%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -21.5%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +6.0%

Elche (A) 26.7%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV +18.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Celta Vigo face Elche in Spain - La Liga on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Celta Vigo a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Elche 27%, so Celta Vigo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Celta Vigo and 1.2 for Elche (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Celta Vigo are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 0.44 for Elche. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +18.8%. This match finished 3-1.

Celta Vigo vs Elche Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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