Today / Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 / Sestao River vs Utebo

Sestao River vs Utebo Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 10:00

Sestao River logo
Sestao River
PPG 1.63 · HOME
1 – 0
FULL TIME
✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS
Utebo logo
Utebo
PPG 1.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.63), Away GOOD (1.56)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-19.7%0-25.7%0-32.3%0-4+0.9%1 1-010.7%1-112.8%1-27.6%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.1%2-18.4%2-25.0%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.1%3-13.7%3-22.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.6%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 37.8%
Draw 30.7%
Away win 31.5%
Over 2.5 45.8%
Over 3.5 24.4%
BTTS 52.9%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

League track record

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%
O2.5 53%
BTTS 53%
Score Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 1-0
xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.9%

D 31% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%
#2 0–0 8.1%
#3 1–0 10.7%
#4 2–1 8.4%
#5 0–1 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sestao River1.3
Utebo1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 24.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SESTAO RIVER · PPG 1.63

UTEBO · PPG 1.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value
42%
BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.63), Away GOOD (1.56)

Win probability 1X2

Sestao River (H) 37.8%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 30.7%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Utebo (A) 31.5%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sestao River face Utebo in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sestao River a 38% chance, the draw 31% and Utebo 32%, so Sestao River are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Sestao River and 1.2 for Utebo (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sestao River are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 1.56 for Utebo. This match finished 1-0.

PredictVantage

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