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Ebro vs UD Logrones Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 10:00

Ebro

PPG 1.75 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

UD Logrones

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.75) > Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-110.0%0-26.7%0-33.0%0-4+1.3%1 1-09.4%1-112.6%1-28.4%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.9%2-17.9%2-25.3%2-32.4%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.5%3-13.3%3-22.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.4%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.9% — — —

Draw 30.2% — — —

Away win 36.9% — — —

Over 2.5 48.0% — — —

Over 3.5 26.3% — — —

BTTS 54.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.7%

D 30% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 7.5%

#3 1–2 8.4%

#4 0–1 10.0%

#5 2–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ebro1.3

UD Logrones1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.0% · O3.5 PROB 26.3%

Form & verdict PPG

EBRO · PPG 1.75

UD LOGRONES · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.75) > Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Ebro (H) 32.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

UD Logrones (A) 36.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ebro face UD Logrones in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ebro a 33% chance, the draw 30% and UD Logrones 37%, so UD Logrones are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Ebro and 1.3 for UD Logrones (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ebro are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.25 for UD Logrones. This match finished 0-3.

Ebro vs UD Logrones Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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