Today / Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 / Basconia vs Ejea

Basconia vs Ejea Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 10:00

Basconia logo
Basconia
PPG 1.56 · HOME
5 – 1
FULL TIME
✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS
Ejea logo
Ejea
PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.56) vs P(Home)=52.9%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-16.3%0-23.2%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.9%1-111.1%1-25.7%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.8%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.6%3-15.7%3-22.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-13.8%4+-21.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 52.9%
Draw 26.8%
Away win 20.3%
Over 2.5 52.6%
Over 3.5 30.4%
BTTS 54.7%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

League track record

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%
O2.5 53%
BTTS 53%
Score Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 5-1
xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.7%

H 53% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%
#2 2–1 9.8%
#3 2–0 9.6%
#4 1–0 10.9%
#5 0–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Basconia1.8
Ejea1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.4%

Form & verdict PPG

BASCONIA · PPG 1.56

EJEA · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value
55%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.56) vs P(Home)=52.9%

Win probability 1X2

Basconia (H) 52.9%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 26.8%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Ejea (A) 20.3%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Basconia face Ejea in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Basconia a 53% chance, the draw 27% and Ejea 20%, so Basconia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Basconia and 1.0 for Ejea (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Basconia are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 0.75 for Ejea. This match finished 5-1.

PredictVantage

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