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Mutilvera vs Amorebieta Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 10:00

Mutilvera

PPG 1.00 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Amorebieta

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.00) vs Away AVERAGE (1.31)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-112.3%0-28.6%0-34.0%0-4+1.9%1 1-09.0%1-112.7%1-28.9%1-34.2%1-4+2.0%2 2-04.7%2-16.6%2-24.6%2-32.1%2-4+1.0%3 3-01.6%3-12.3%3-21.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.8% — — —

Draw 30.7% — — —

Away win 43.5% — — —

Over 2.5 44.0% — — —

Over 3.5 22.9% — — —

BTTS 50.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob50.5%

A 44% / xG 1.0-1.4 / U2.5 44% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 8.8%

#3 0–1 12.3%

#4 1–2 8.9%

#5 0–2✓ 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mutilvera1.0

Amorebieta1.4

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MUTILVERA · PPG 1.00

AMOREBIETA · PPG 1.31

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.00) vs Away AVERAGE (1.31)

Win probability 1X2

Mutilvera (H) 25.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Amorebieta (A) 43.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Mutilvera face Amorebieta in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mutilvera a 26% chance, the draw 31% and Amorebieta 44%, so Amorebieta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Mutilvera and 1.4 for Amorebieta (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mutilvera are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.31 for Amorebieta. This match finished 0-2.

Mutilvera vs Amorebieta Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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