Today / Poland - Ekstraliga Women / Rekord B. W vs P. Tczew W

Rekord B. W vs P. Tczew W Prediction— Poland - Ekstraliga Women

Regular Season - 19 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 09:00

Rekord B. W

PPG 0.89 · HOME

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

P. Tczew W

PPG 0.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.89) > Away POOR (0.11)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-14.5%0-22.3%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.3%1-19.5%1-24.8%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.8%2-19.9%2-25.1%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.8%3-16.9%3-23.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.8%4+-15.9%4+-23.0%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.6% — — —

Draw 23.3% — — —

Away win 16.1% — — —

Over 2.5 60.0% — — —

Over 3.5 37.7% — — —

BTTS 57.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 87%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob57.4%

H 61% / xG 2.1-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.8%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 3–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rekord B. W2.1

P. Tczew W1.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.0% · O3.5 PROB 37.7%

Form & verdict PPG

REKORD B. W · PPG 0.89

P. TCZEW W · PPG 0.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.89) > Away POOR (0.11)

Win probability 1X2

Rekord B. W (H) 60.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

P. Tczew W (A) 16.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Rekord B. W face P. Tczew W in Poland - Ekstraliga Women on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rekord B. W a 61% chance, the draw 23% and P. Tczew W 16%, so Rekord B. W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Rekord B. W and 1.0 for P. Tczew W (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rekord B. W are averaging 0.89 points per game versus 0.11 for P. Tczew W. This match finished 5-1.

Rekord B. W vs P. Tczew W Prediction— Poland - Ekstraliga Women

Match Preview & Prediction

More Poland - Ekstraliga Women Predictions