Today / England - Championship / Blackburn vs Coventry City

Blackburn vs Coventry City Prediction— England - Championship

Matchday 43 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 19:00

Blackburn

PPG 0.95 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Coventry City

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWWW

// Model verdict

Away 56% chance

Model probability 70.0% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+40.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-113.7%0-214.1%0-39.6%0-4+7.9%1 1-04.4%1-19.0%1-29.2%1-36.3%1-4+5.2%2 2-01.4%2-12.9%2-23.0%2-32.1%2-4+1.7%3 3-00.3%3-10.6%3-20.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 10.8% 26.7% 3.75 -59.5%

Draw 19.2% 30.3% 3.30 -36.6%

Away win 70.0% 50.0% 2.00 +40.0%

Over 2.5 50.7% 51.3% 1.95 -1.1%

Over 3.5 28.6% 29.0% 3.45 -1.3%

BTTS 41.8% 56.5% 1.77 -26.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -5.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob41.8%

A 70% / xG 0.7-2.0 / O2.5 51% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 14.1%

#2 0–1 13.7%

#3 0–3 9.6%

#4 1–2 9.2%

#5 1–1✓ 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Blackburn0.7

Coventry City2.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BLACKBURN · PPG 0.95

COVENTRY CITY · PPG 1.71

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

56%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.71) vs Home POOR (0.95)

Win probability 1X2

Blackburn (H) 10.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -59.5%

Draw 19.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -36.6%

Coventry City (A) 70.0%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +40.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Blackburn face Coventry City in England - Championship on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Blackburn a 11% chance, the draw 19% and Coventry City 70%, so Coventry City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Blackburn and 2.0 for Coventry City (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Blackburn are averaging 0.95 points per game versus 1.71 for Coventry City. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +40.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Blackburn vs Coventry City Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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