Osasuna vs FC Barcelona Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Spain - La Liga Regular Season - 34 Estadio El Sadar· Pamplona Saturday, May 2, 2026 19:00

Osasuna PPG 2.00

1-2 HIT CS2

FC Barcelona PPG 2.13

Home· +9.0% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Osasuna face FC Barcelona in Spain - La Liga on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Osasuna a 25% chance, the draw 27% and FC Barcelona 49%, so FC Barcelona are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Osasuna and 1.8 for FC Barcelona (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Osasuna are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.13 for FC Barcelona. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +9.0%. This match finished 1-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 24.5%

Odds: 4.45 EV: +9.0%

Draw 26.7%

Odds: 3.85 EV: +2.8%

Away 48.7%

Odds: 1.70 EV: -17.2%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 56.9% Odds: 1.57 -10.7%

Over 3.5 34.5% Odds: 2.40 -17.2%

BTTS 59.7% Odds: 1.55 -7.5%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-2 ✔

3rd 0-2 ✘

4th 0-1 ✘

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Osasuna

1.21

FC Barcelona

1.76

Model SuggestionBTTS -7.5% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -7.5% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+9.0%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5/Under 60%

BTTS/No 64%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -19.9%

Bet Hit 42% (26 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away EXCELLENT (2.13)