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Osasuna vs FC Barcelona Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 34 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 19:00

Osasuna

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

FC Barcelona

PPG 2.13 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 63% chance

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-19.1%0-28.0%0-34.7%0-4+3.1%1 1-06.2%1-110.9%1-29.6%1-35.6%1-4+3.7%2 2-03.7%2-16.6%2-25.8%2-33.4%2-4+2.2%3 3-01.5%3-12.7%3-22.3%3-31.4%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.0%4+-20.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.5% 22.5% 4.45 +9.0%

Draw 26.7% 26.0% 3.85 +2.8%

Away win 48.7% 58.8% 1.70 -17.2%

Over 2.5 56.9% 63.7% 1.57 -10.7%

Over 3.5 34.5% 41.7% 2.40 -17.2%

BTTS 59.7% 64.5% 1.55 -7.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 94 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 48%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob59.7%

A 49% / xG 1.2-1.8 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 1–2✓ 9.6%

#3 0–2 8.0%

#4 0–1 9.1%

#5 0–0 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Osasuna1.2

FC Barcelona1.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.9% · O3.5 PROB 34.5%

Form & verdict PPG

OSASUNA · PPG 2.00

FC BARCELONA · PPG 2.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

63%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away EXCELLENT (2.13)

Win probability 1X2

Osasuna (H) 24.5%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV +9.0%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +2.8%

FC Barcelona (A) 48.7%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -17.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Osasuna face FC Barcelona in Spain - La Liga on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Osasuna a 25% chance, the draw 27% and FC Barcelona 49%, so FC Barcelona are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Osasuna and 1.8 for FC Barcelona (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Osasuna are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.13 for FC Barcelona. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +9.0%. This match finished 1-2.

Osasuna vs FC Barcelona Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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