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Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Regular Season - 32 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 16:30

Leverkusen

PPG 1.80 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

RB Leipzig

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 65.7% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-15.9%0-24.5%0-32.3%0-4+1.2%1 1-06.7%1-110.2%1-27.8%1-33.9%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.8%2-18.8%2-26.7%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-03.3%3-15.1%3-23.8%3-31.9%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-13.2%4+-22.4%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.2% 46.3% 2.16 -11.0%

Draw 26.2% 25.6% 3.90 +2.2%

Away win 32.6% 35.1% 2.85 -7.1%

Over 2.5 62.9% 73.5% 1.36 -14.5%

Over 3.5 40.7% 54.1% 1.85 -24.7%

BTTS 65.7% 75.2% 1.33 -12.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob65.7%

H 41% / xG 1.7-1.5 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 2–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leverkusen1.7

RB Leipzig1.5

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.9% · O3.5 PROB 40.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LEVERKUSEN · PPG 1.80

RB LEIPZIG · PPG 1.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.80), Away GOOD (1.80)

Win probability 1X2

Leverkusen (H) 41.2%

ODDS 2.16 · IMPLIED 46.3% EV -11.0%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +2.2%

RB Leipzig (A) 32.6%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -7.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leverkusen face RB Leipzig in Germany - Bundesliga on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leverkusen a 41% chance, the draw 26% and RB Leipzig 33%, so Leverkusen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Leverkusen and 1.5 for RB Leipzig (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leverkusen are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.80 for RB Leipzig. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +2.2%. This match finished 4-1.

Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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