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Alaves vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 16:30

Alaves

PPG 1.50 · HOME

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Athletic Bilbao

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-18.6%0-24.9%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.0%1-112.4%1-27.0%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.9%2-19.0%2-25.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.8%3-14.3%3-22.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.1%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.3% 37.3% 2.68 +13.4%

Draw 29.9% 30.3% 3.30 -1.3%

Away win 27.8% 39.2% 2.55 -29.1%

Over 2.5 47.5% 50.0% 2.00 -5.0%

Over 3.5 25.8% 28.6% 3.50 -9.7%

BTTS 53.6% 57.1% 1.75 -6.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 15.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.6%

H 42% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.6%

#3 1–0 11.0%

#4 2–1 9.0%

#5 2–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alaves1.4

Athletic Bilbao1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ALAVES · PPG 1.50

ATHLETIC BILBAO · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Alaves (H) 42.3%

ODDS 2.68 · IMPLIED 37.3% EV +13.4%

Draw 29.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -1.3%

Athletic Bilbao (A) 27.8%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -29.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alaves face Athletic Bilbao in Spain - La Liga on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alaves a 42% chance, the draw 30% and Athletic Bilbao 28%, so Alaves are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Alaves and 1.1 for Athletic Bilbao (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alaves are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.75 for Athletic Bilbao. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +13.4%. This match finished 2-4.

Alaves vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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