Alaves vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction & Tips

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Spain - La Liga Regular Season - 34 Estadio Mendizorrotza· Vitoria-Gasteiz Saturday, May 2, 2026 16:30

Alaves PPG 1.50

2-4 MISS

Athletic Bilbao PPG 0.75

Home· +13.4% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 42.3%

Odds: 2.68 EV: +13.4%

Draw 29.9%

Odds: 3.30 EV: -1.3%

Away 27.8%

Odds: 2.55 EV: -29.1%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 47.5% Odds: 2.00 -5.0%

Over 3.5 25.8% Odds: 3.50 -9.7%

BTTS 53.6% Odds: 1.75 -6.2%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Alaves

1.44

Athletic Bilbao

1.13

Model SuggestionBTTS -6.2% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -6.2% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+13.4%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away POOR (0.75)