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Valencia vs Atletico Madrid Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:15

Valencia

PPG 1.63 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Atletico Madrid

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.1% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-110.0%0-26.9%0-33.2%0-4+1.5%1 1-09.0%1-112.4%1-28.6%1-34.0%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.6%2-17.7%2-25.3%2-32.5%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.3%3-13.2%3-22.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.3%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.8% 57.1% 1.75 -44.4%

Draw 29.9% 27.0% 3.70 +10.6%

Away win 38.3% 23.0% 4.35 +66.6%

Over 2.5 48.8% 55.6% 1.80 -12.2%

Over 3.5 26.9% 33.3% 3.00 -19.3%

BTTS 55.1% 57.8% 1.73 -4.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 15.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob55.1%

D 30% / xG 1.2-1.4 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.2%

#3 1–2 8.6%

#4 0–1 10.0%

#5 2–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Valencia1.2

Atletico Madrid1.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.9%

Form & verdict PPG

VALENCIA · PPG 1.63

ATLETICO MADRID · PPG 1.06

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.63) > Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

Valencia (H) 31.8%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -44.4%

Draw 29.9%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +10.6%

Atletico Madrid (A) 38.3%

ODDS 4.35 · IMPLIED 23.0% EV +66.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Valencia face Atletico Madrid in Spain - La Liga on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Valencia a 32% chance, the draw 30% and Atletico Madrid 38%, so Atletico Madrid are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Valencia and 1.4 for Atletico Madrid (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Valencia are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 1.06 for Atletico Madrid. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +66.6%. This match finished 0-2.

Valencia vs Atletico Madrid Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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