Valencia vs Atletico Madrid Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Spain - La Liga Regular Season - 34 Estadio de Mestalla· Valencia Saturday, May 2, 2026 14:15

Valencia PPG 1.63

0-2 MISS

Atletico Madrid PPG 1.06

Away· +66.6% ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Valencia face Atletico Madrid in Spain - La Liga on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Valencia a 32% chance, the draw 30% and Atletico Madrid 38%, so Atletico Madrid are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Valencia and 1.4 for Atletico Madrid (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Valencia are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 1.06 for Atletico Madrid. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +66.6%. This match finished 0-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 31.8%

Odds: 1.75 EV: -44.4%

Draw 29.9%

Odds: 3.70 EV: +10.6%

Away 38.3%

Odds: 4.35 EV: +66.6%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 48.8% Odds: 1.80 -12.2%

Over 3.5 26.9% Odds: 3.00 -19.3%

BTTS 55.1% Odds: 1.73 -4.7%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 1-2 ✘

4th 0-1 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Valencia

1.24

Atletico Madrid

1.38

Model SuggestionBTTS -4.7% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -4.7% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+66.6%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5/Under 60%

BTTS/No 64%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -19.9%

Bet Hit 42% (26 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.63) > Away AVERAGE (1.06)