Today / Latvia - Virsliga / Ogre United vs RFS

Ogre United vs RFS Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 10 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:00

Ogre United

PPG 0.50 · HOME

3 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

RFS

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 58.2% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.8%0-117.0%0-213.4%0-37.1%0-4+4.0%1 1-07.0%1-111.0%1-28.7%1-34.6%1-4+2.6%2 2-02.3%2-13.6%2-22.8%2-31.5%2-4+0.8%3 3-00.5%3-10.8%3-20.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.5% 7.1% 14.00 +89.0%

Draw 28.3% 17.4% 5.75 +62.7%

Away win 58.2% 85.5% 1.17 -31.9%

Over 2.5 38.4% 69.0% 1.45 -44.3%

Over 3.5 18.6% 46.5% 2.15 -60.0%

BTTS 39.5% 50.0% 2.00 -21.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-4

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob39.5%

A 58% / xG 0.6-1.6 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 17.0%

#2 0–2 13.4%

#3 1–1 11.0%

#4 0–0 10.8%

#5 1–2 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ogre United0.6

RFS1.6

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.4% · O3.5 PROB 18.6%

Form & verdict PPG

OGRE UNITED · PPG 0.50

RFS · PPG 3.00

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs Home POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Ogre United (H) 13.5%

ODDS 14.00 · IMPLIED 7.1% EV +89.0%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +62.7%

RFS (A) 58.2%

ODDS 1.17 · IMPLIED 85.5% EV -31.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ogre United face RFS in Latvia - Virsliga on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ogre United a 14% chance, the draw 28% and RFS 58%, so RFS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Ogre United and 1.6 for RFS (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ogre United are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 3.00 for RFS. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +89.0%. This match finished 3-4.

Ogre United vs RFS Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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