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Sankt Pauli vs FC Koln Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Regular Season - 30 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 18:30

Sankt Pauli

PPG 1.14 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

FC Koln

PPG 0.79 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 56.0% vs bookmaker-implied 40.8% — a clear edge.

+37.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-113.0%0-210.9%0-36.1%0-4+3.7%1 1-06.9%1-111.5%1-29.6%1-35.3%1-4+3.2%2 2-03.0%2-15.1%2-24.2%2-32.4%2-4+1.4%3 3-00.9%3-11.5%3-21.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 19.7% 35.5% 2.82 -44.5%

Draw 24.2% 30.8% 3.25 -21.3%

Away win 56.0% 40.8% 2.45 +37.2%

Over 2.5 47.0% 50.0% 2.00 -6.0%

Over 3.5 25.4% 28.2% 3.55 -9.8%

BTTS 47.6% 56.5% 1.77 -15.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob47.6%

A 56% / xG 0.9-1.7 / O2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 13.0%

#2 1–1✓ 11.5%

#3 0–2 10.9%

#4 1–2 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sankt Pauli0.9

FC Koln1.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.0% · O3.5 PROB 25.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SANKT PAULI · PPG 1.14

FC KOLN · PPG 0.79

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.14) > Away POOR (0.79)

Win probability 1X2

Sankt Pauli (H) 19.7%

ODDS 2.82 · IMPLIED 35.5% EV -44.5%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -21.3%

FC Koln (A) 56.0%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +37.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sankt Pauli face FC Koln in Germany - Bundesliga on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sankt Pauli a 20% chance, the draw 24% and FC Koln 56%, so FC Koln are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Sankt Pauli and 1.7 for FC Koln (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sankt Pauli are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 0.79 for FC Koln. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +37.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Sankt Pauli vs FC Koln Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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