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Aalen vs Villingen Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg

Baden-Württemberg - 30 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 13:30

Aalen

PPG 2.43 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Villingen

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.43) vs P(Home)=64.8%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-14.1%0-21.9%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.8%1-19.0%1-24.1%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.7%2-19.8%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.8%3-17.2%3-23.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-07.1%4+-16.5%4+-23.0%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.8% — — —

Draw 21.9% — — —

Away win 13.3% — — —

Over 2.5 60.0% — — —

Over 3.5 37.6% — — —

BTTS 54.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 79%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.7%

H 65% / xG 2.2-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.7%

#2 1–1 9.0%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 3–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aalen2.2

Villingen0.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.0% · O3.5 PROB 37.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AALEN · PPG 2.43

VILLINGEN · PPG 1.21

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.43) vs P(Home)=64.8%

Win probability 1X2

Aalen (H) 64.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Villingen (A) 13.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Aalen face Villingen in Germany - Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aalen a 65% chance, the draw 22% and Villingen 13%, so Aalen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Aalen and 0.9 for Villingen (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aalen are averaging 2.43 points per game versus 1.21 for Villingen. This match finished 2-2.

Aalen vs Villingen Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg

Match Preview & Prediction

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