Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Germany - Bundesliga Regular Season - 32 Weserstadion· Bremen Saturday, May 2, 2026 13:30

Werder Bremen PPG 1.27

1-3 MISS

FC Augsburg PPG 0.93

Away· +10.8% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Werder Bremen face FC Augsburg in Germany - Bundesliga on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Werder Bremen a 40% chance, the draw 28% and FC Augsburg 33%, so Werder Bremen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Werder Bremen and 1.4 for FC Augsburg (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Werder Bremen are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 0.93 for FC Augsburg. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +10.8%. This match finished 1-3.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 39.5%

Odds: 1.95 EV: -23.0%

Draw 27.9%

Odds: 3.80 EV: +6.0%

Away 32.6%

Odds: 3.40 EV: +10.8%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 56.4% Odds: 1.53 -13.7%

Over 3.5 34.0% Odds: 2.30 -21.8%

BTTS 60.9% Odds: 1.48 -9.9%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-2 ✘

4th 0-0 ✘

5th 1-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Werder Bremen

1.55

FC Augsburg

1.39

Model SuggestionBTTS -9.9% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -9.9% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+10.8%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5/Under 73%

BTTS/No 76%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 1.8%

Bet Hit 63% (16 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

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Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.27) > Away POOR (0.93)