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Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Regular Season - 32 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 13:30

Werder Bremen

PPG 1.27 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

FC Augsburg

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.9% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-17.3%0-25.1%0-32.4%0-4+1.1%1 1-08.2%1-111.4%1-27.9%1-33.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.3%2-18.8%2-26.1%2-32.9%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.3%3-14.6%3-23.2%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.5%4+-21.7%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.5% 51.3% 1.95 -23.0%

Draw 27.9% 26.3% 3.80 +6.0%

Away win 32.6% 29.4% 3.40 +10.8%

Over 2.5 56.4% 65.4% 1.53 -13.7%

Over 3.5 34.0% 43.5% 2.30 -21.8%

BTTS 60.9% 67.6% 1.48 -9.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob60.9%

H 40% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.9%

#4 0–0 5.3%

#5 1–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Werder Bremen1.5

FC Augsburg1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.4% · O3.5 PROB 34.0%

Form & verdict PPG

WERDER BREMEN · PPG 1.27

FC AUGSBURG · PPG 0.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.27) > Away POOR (0.93)

Win probability 1X2

Werder Bremen (H) 39.5%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -23.0%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +6.0%

FC Augsburg (A) 32.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +10.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Werder Bremen face FC Augsburg in Germany - Bundesliga on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Werder Bremen a 40% chance, the draw 28% and FC Augsburg 33%, so Werder Bremen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Werder Bremen and 1.4 for FC Augsburg (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Werder Bremen are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 0.93 for FC Augsburg. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +10.8%. This match finished 1-3.

Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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