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Union Berlin vs FC Koln Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Matchday 32 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 13:30

Union Berlin

PPG 1.20 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDWW

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

FC Koln

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 60% chance

Model probability 61.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-17.5%0-25.4%0-32.6%0-4+1.3%1 1-07.7%1-111.3%1-28.2%1-34.0%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.9%2-18.6%2-26.2%2-33.0%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.0%3-14.3%3-23.2%3-31.5%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.3%4+-21.7%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.4% 41.3% 2.42 -9.5%

Draw 27.8% 30.8% 3.25 -9.7%

Away win 34.8% 35.0% 2.86 -0.5%

Over 2.5 57.1% 52.6% 1.90 +8.5%

Over 3.5 34.7% 30.8% 3.25 +12.8%

BTTS 61.6% 58.8% 1.70 +4.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 11.9%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.6%

H 37% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 8.2%

#4 0–0 5.1%

#5 2–2✓ 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Union Berlin1.5

FC Koln1.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.1% · O3.5 PROB 34.7%

Form & verdict PPG

UNION BERLIN · PPG 1.20

FC KOLN · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

60%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.20) > Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Union Berlin (H) 37.4%

ODDS 2.42 · IMPLIED 41.3% EV -9.5%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -9.7%

FC Koln (A) 34.8%

ODDS 2.86 · IMPLIED 35.0% EV -0.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Union Berlin face FC Koln in Germany - Bundesliga on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Union Berlin a 37% chance, the draw 28% and FC Koln 35%, so Union Berlin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Union Berlin and 1.5 for FC Koln (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Union Berlin are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.80 for FC Koln. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +12.8%. This match finished 2-2.

Union Berlin vs FC Koln Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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