Union Berlin vs FC Koln Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Germany - Bundesliga Regular Season - 32 Stadion An der Alten Försterei· Berlin Saturday, May 2, 2026 13:30

Union Berlin PPG 1.20

2-2 HIT CS5

FC Koln PPG 0.80

Over3.5· +12.8% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Union Berlin face FC Koln in Germany - Bundesliga on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Union Berlin a 37% chance, the draw 28% and FC Koln 35%, so Union Berlin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Union Berlin and 1.5 for FC Koln (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Union Berlin are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.80 for FC Koln. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +12.8%. This match finished 2-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 37.4%

Odds: 2.42 EV: -9.5%

Draw 27.8%

Odds: 3.25 EV: -9.7%

Away 34.8%

Odds: 2.86 EV: -0.5%

Model lean: BTTS

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 57.1% Odds: 1.90 +8.5%

Over 3.5 34.7% Odds: 3.25 +12.8%

BTTS 61.6% Odds: 1.70 +4.7%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-2 ✘

4th 0-0 ✘

5th 2-2 ✔

Expected Goals (xG)

Union Berlin

1.52

FC Koln

1.46

Model SuggestionBTTS +4.7% ROI TRACKS: BTTS
Tracked ROI market: BTTS. 
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+12.8%)

League Track Record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5/Under 73%

BTTS/No 76%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 1.8%

Bet Hit 63% (16 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.20) > Away POOR (0.80)