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Hoffenheim vs Stuttgart Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Matchday 32 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 13:30

Hoffenheim

PPG 1.87 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWL

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Stuttgart

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 74% chance

Model probability 70.7% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-14.6%0-23.9%0-32.2%0-4+1.4%1 1-05.3%1-18.9%1-27.5%1-34.2%1-4+2.6%2 2-05.0%2-18.4%2-27.1%2-34.0%2-4+2.5%3 3-03.2%3-15.4%3-24.5%3-32.5%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-13.9%4+-23.3%4+-31.9%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.2% 43.1% 2.32 -2.1%

Draw 24.5% 25.3% 3.95 -3.2%

Away win 33.3% 38.5% 2.60 -13.4%

Over 2.5 69.6% 73.5% 1.36 -5.3%

Over 3.5 48.3% 52.6% 1.90 -8.2%

BTTS 70.7% 75.2% 1.33 -6.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 11.9%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob70.7%

H 42% / xG 1.9-1.7 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 71%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 3–1 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hoffenheim1.9

Stuttgart1.7

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.6% · O3.5 PROB 48.3%

Form & verdict PPG

HOFFENHEIM · PPG 1.87

STUTTGART · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

74%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.87) > Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Hoffenheim (H) 42.2%

ODDS 2.32 · IMPLIED 43.1% EV -2.1%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -3.2%

Stuttgart (A) 33.3%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -13.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hoffenheim face Stuttgart in Germany - Bundesliga on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hoffenheim a 42% chance, the draw 25% and Stuttgart 33%, so Hoffenheim are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Hoffenheim and 1.7 for Stuttgart (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 71% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hoffenheim are averaging 1.87 points per game versus 1.40 for Stuttgart. This match finished 3-3.

Hoffenheim vs Stuttgart Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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