Hoffenheim vs Stuttgart Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Germany - Bundesliga Regular Season - 32 PreZero Arena· Sinsheim Saturday, May 2, 2026 13:30

Hoffenheim PPG 1.87

3-3 MISS

Stuttgart PPG 1.40

Home· -2.1% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Hoffenheim face Stuttgart in Germany - Bundesliga on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hoffenheim a 42% chance, the draw 25% and Stuttgart 33%, so Hoffenheim are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Hoffenheim and 1.7 for Stuttgart (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 71% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hoffenheim are averaging 1.87 points per game versus 1.40 for Stuttgart. This match finished 3-3.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 42.2%

Odds: 2.32 EV: -2.1%

Draw 24.5%

Odds: 3.95 EV: -3.2%

Away 33.3%

Odds: 2.60 EV: -13.4%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 69.6% Odds: 1.36 -5.3%

Over 3.5 48.3% Odds: 1.90 -8.2%

BTTS 70.7% Odds: 1.33 -6.0%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-2 ✘

4th 2-2 ✘

5th 3-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Hoffenheim

1.91

Stuttgart

1.68

Model SuggestionBTTS -6.0% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -6.0% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 

League Track Record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5/Under 73%

BTTS/No 76%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 1.8%

Bet Hit 63% (16 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.87) > Away AVERAGE (1.40)