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E. Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Regular Season - 32 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 13:30

E. Frankfurt

PPG 1.60 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Hamburger SV

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-15.2%0-23.3%0-31.4%0-4+0.6%1 1-07.8%1-110.0%1-26.4%1-32.7%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.5%2-19.6%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.8%3-16.2%3-24.0%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-14.6%4+-23.0%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.1% 58.5% 1.71 -12.6%

Draw 25.2% 24.4% 4.10 +3.3%

Away win 23.8% 23.8% 4.20 -0.0%

Over 2.5 62.1% 65.4% 1.53 -5.0%

Over 3.5 39.9% 43.5% 2.30 -8.2%

BTTS 63.1% 65.4% 1.53 -3.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.1%

H 51% / xG 1.9-1.3 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.5%

#4 1–2✓ 6.4%

#5 1–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

E. Frankfurt1.9

Hamburger SV1.3

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.9%

Form & verdict PPG

E. FRANKFURT · PPG 1.60

HAMBURGER SV · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.60) vs P(Home)=51.1%

Win probability 1X2

E. Frankfurt (H) 51.1%

ODDS 1.71 · IMPLIED 58.5% EV -12.6%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +3.3%

Hamburger SV (A) 23.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -0.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

E. Frankfurt face Hamburger SV in Germany - Bundesliga on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives E. Frankfurt a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Hamburger SV 24%, so E. Frankfurt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for E. Frankfurt and 1.3 for Hamburger SV (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, E. Frankfurt are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.67 for Hamburger SV. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +3.3%. This match finished 1-2.

E. Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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