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Bayern Munich vs Heidenheim Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Regular Season - 32 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 13:30

Bayern Munich

PPG 2.67 · HOME

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Heidenheim

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 85.6% vs bookmaker-implied 80.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-10.9%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-03.5%1-13.3%1-21.6%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-06.6%2-16.2%2-22.9%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.1%3-17.7%3-23.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-019.7%4+-118.6%4+-28.8%4+-32.8%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 85.6% 80.6% 1.24 +6.1%

Draw 9.7% 16.0% 6.25 -39.4%

Away win 4.8% 10.3% 9.70 -53.4%

Over 2.5 84.3% 80.0% 1.25 +5.4%

Over 3.5 68.3% 61.7% 1.62 +10.7%

BTTS 60.1% 66.7% 1.50 -9.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 80%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)3.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob60.1%

H 86% / xG 3.7-0.9 / O2.5 84% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 8.1%

#2 3–1 7.7%

#3 4–0 7.5%

#4 4–1 7.1%

#5 2–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bayern Munich3.7

Heidenheim0.9

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 84.3% · O3.5 PROB 68.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BAYERN MUNICH · PPG 2.67

HEIDENHEIM · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

68%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.67), Away POOR (0.33) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Bayern Munich (H) 85.6%

ODDS 1.24 · IMPLIED 80.6% EV +6.1%

Draw 9.7%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV -39.4%

Heidenheim (A) 4.8%

ODDS 9.70 · IMPLIED 10.3% EV -53.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bayern Munich face Heidenheim in Germany - Bundesliga on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bayern Munich a 86% chance, the draw 10% and Heidenheim 5%, so Bayern Munich are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.7 for Bayern Munich and 0.9 for Heidenheim (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 84% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bayern Munich are averaging 2.67 points per game versus 0.33 for Heidenheim. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.7%. This match finished 3-3.

Bayern Munich vs Heidenheim Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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