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Turkgucu M. vs Kottern Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Bayern Süd

Bayern Süd - 32 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 13:00

Turkgucu M.

PPG 0.50 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Kottern

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home weakness: POOR (0.50) vs Away POOR (0.93)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-110.6%0-28.8%0-34.8%0-4+2.9%1 1-07.0%1-111.6%1-29.6%1-35.3%1-4+3.2%2 2-03.8%2-16.3%2-25.3%2-32.9%2-4+1.7%3 3-01.4%3-12.3%3-21.9%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.4% — — —

Draw 27.8% — — —

Away win 48.8% — — —

Over 2.5 52.0% — — —

Over 3.5 29.8% — — —

BTTS 55.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob55.7%

A 49% / xG 1.1-1.7 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–1 10.6%

#4 0–2 8.8%

#5 0–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Turkgucu M.1.1

Kottern1.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.0% · O3.5 PROB 29.8%

Form & verdict PPG

TURKGUCU M. · PPG 0.50

KOTTERN · PPG 0.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.50) vs Away POOR (0.93)

Win probability 1X2

Turkgucu M. (H) 23.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Kottern (A) 48.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Turkgucu M. face Kottern in Germany - Oberliga - Bayern Süd on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Turkgucu M. a 23% chance, the draw 28% and Kottern 49%, so Kottern are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Turkgucu M. and 1.7 for Kottern (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Turkgucu M. are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 0.93 for Kottern. This match finished 2-1.

Turkgucu M. vs Kottern Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Bayern Süd

Match Preview & Prediction

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