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Stoke City U21 vs Aston Villa U21 Prediction— England - Premier League 2 Division One

Regular Season - 16 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 18:00

Stoke City U21

PPG 1.44 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Aston Villa U21

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-16.4%0-26.6%0-34.5%0-4+3.7%1 1-04.4%1-19.1%1-29.3%1-36.4%1-4+5.3%2 2-03.1%2-16.4%2-26.6%2-34.5%2-4+3.7%3 3-01.5%3-13.0%3-23.1%3-32.1%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.4%4+-21.5%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.3% 34.5% 2.90 -23.7%

Draw 21.3% 26.3% 3.80 -19.1%

Away win 52.4% 52.4% 1.91 +0.1%

Over 2.5 67.2% — — —

Over 3.5 45.5% — — —

BTTS 65.9% 76.9% 1.30 -14.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob65.9%

A 52% / xG 1.4-2.1 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.3%

#2 1–1 9.1%

#3 0–2 6.6%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 0–1✓ 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stoke City U211.4

Aston Villa U212.1

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 45.5%

Form & verdict PPG

STOKE CITY U21 · PPG 1.44

ASTON VILLA U21 · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

Stoke City U21 (H) 26.3%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -23.7%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -19.1%

Aston Villa U21 (A) 52.4%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +0.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stoke City U21 face Aston Villa U21 in England - Premier League 2 Division One on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stoke City U21 a 26% chance, the draw 21% and Aston Villa U21 52%, so Aston Villa U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Stoke City U21 and 2.1 for Aston Villa U21 (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stoke City U21 are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 2.00 for Aston Villa U21. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +0.1%. This match finished 0-1.

Stoke City U21 vs Aston Villa U21 Prediction— England - Premier League 2 Division One

Match Preview & Prediction

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