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Aston Villa U21 vs Crystal Palace U21 Prediction— England - Premier League 2 Division One

Regular Season ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 18:00

Aston Villa U21

PPG 1.43 · HOME

LAST 5

WL ···

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Crystal Palace U21

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

DW ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-15.7%0-24.4%0-32.2%0-4+1.2%1 1-06.5%1-110.0%1-27.7%1-33.9%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.7%2-18.8%2-26.8%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-03.4%3-15.2%3-24.0%3-32.0%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-13.4%4+-22.6%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.7% 51.3% 1.95 -14.8%

Draw 26.9% 27.0% 3.70 -0.3%

Away win 29.4% 34.5% 2.90 -8.8%

Over 2.5 59.7% 69.4% 1.44 -14.0%

Over 3.5 36.7% 47.6% 2.10 -22.9%

BTTS 56.7% 71.4% 1.40 -20.6%

Home O1.5 48.9% 60.6% 1.65 -19.3%

Away O1.5 47.9% 48.1% 2.08 -0.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob56.7%

H 44% / xG 1.8-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 2–2 6.8%

#4 1–2 7.7%

#5 2–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aston Villa U211.8

Crystal Palace U211.5

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ASTON VILLA U21 · PPG 1.43

CRYSTAL PALACE U21 · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.22 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Aston Villa U21 (H) 43.7%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -14.8%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -0.3%

Crystal Palace U21 (A) 29.4%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -8.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aston Villa U21 face Crystal Palace U21 in England - Premier League 2 Division One on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aston Villa U21 a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Crystal Palace U21 29%, so Aston Villa U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Aston Villa U21 and 1.5 for Crystal Palace U21 (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aston Villa U21 are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.29 for Crystal Palace U21. This match finished 0-2.

Aston Villa U21 vs Crystal Palace U21 Prediction— England - Premier League 2 Division One

Match Preview & Prediction

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