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Everton U21 vs Southampton U21 Prediction— England - Premier League 2 Division One

Regular Season ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 18:00

Everton U21

PPG 1.31 · HOME

LAST 5

DL ···

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Southampton U21

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

DW ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-17.6%0-25.3%0-32.4%0-4+1.2%1 1-08.3%1-111.5%1-28.0%1-33.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.3%2-18.7%2-26.1%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.2%3-14.4%3-23.1%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.4%4+-21.6%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.5% 42.0% 2.38 -8.4%

Draw 32.2% 29.4% 3.40 +9.5%

Away win 29.3% 41.7% 2.40 -17.8%

Over 2.5 51.2% 66.7% 1.50 -23.2%

Over 3.5 31.5% 46.5% 2.15 -32.3%

BTTS 52.7% 71.4% 1.40 -26.2%

Home O1.5 40.1% 54.1% 1.85 -25.8%

Away O1.5 40.9% 53.5% 1.87 -23.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob52.7%

D 32% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 0–0 5.5%

#4 1–2✓ 8.0%

#5 2–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Everton U211.5

Southampton U211.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.2% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

EVERTON U21 · PPG 1.31

SOUTHAMPTON U21 · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.13 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Everton U21 (H) 38.5%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -8.4%

Draw 32.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +9.5%

Southampton U21 (A) 29.3%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -17.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Everton U21 face Southampton U21 in England - Premier League 2 Division One on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Everton U21 a 39% chance, the draw 32% and Southampton U21 29%, so Everton U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Everton U21 and 1.4 for Southampton U21 (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Everton U21 are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 1.25 for Southampton U21. This match finished 1-2.

Everton U21 vs Southampton U21 Prediction— England - Premier League 2 Division One

Match Preview & Prediction

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