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Grobina vs Daugavpils Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 10 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 12:00

Grobina

PPG 0.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Daugavpils

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-112.2%0-27.9%0-33.4%0-4+1.4%1 1-010.1%1-113.0%1-28.4%1-33.6%1-4+1.5%2 2-05.4%2-16.9%2-24.5%2-31.9%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.9%3-12.5%3-21.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.8%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.7% 39.2% 2.55 -26.8%

Draw 31.7% 31.3% 3.20 +1.4%

Away win 39.6% 39.2% 2.55 +1.0%

Over 2.5 41.8% 48.8% 2.05 -14.3%

Over 3.5 21.1% 27.0% 3.70 -21.9%

BTTS 49.4% 55.6% 1.80 -11.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob49.4%

A 40% / xG 1.1-1.3 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.0%

#2 0–0 9.5%

#3 0–1 12.2%

#4 1–2 8.4%

#5 1–0 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Grobina1.1

Daugavpils1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.8% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

GROBINA · PPG 0.00

DAUGAVPILS · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Grobina (H) 28.7%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -26.8%

Draw 31.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +1.4%

Daugavpils (A) 39.6%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +1.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Grobina face Daugavpils in Latvia - Virsliga on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Grobina a 29% chance, the draw 32% and Daugavpils 40%, so Daugavpils are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Grobina and 1.3 for Daugavpils (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Grobina are averaging 0.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Daugavpils. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Grobina vs Daugavpils Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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