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RFC Seraing U21 vs O. Charleroi Prediction— Belgium - Challenger Pro League

Matchday 34 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 18:00

RFC Seraing U21

PPG 1.82 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLW

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

O. Charleroi

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 71% chance

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 81.4% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a clear edge.

+22.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-11.4%0-20.8%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-04.0%1-14.6%1-22.7%1-31.0%1-4+0.4%2 2-06.5%2-17.5%2-24.3%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.0%3-18.1%3-24.7%3-31.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-012.7%4+-114.8%4+-28.5%4+-33.3%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 77.6% 51.3% 1.95 +51.3%

Draw 12.5% 27.4% 3.65 -54.4%

Away win 9.9% 30.3% 3.30 -67.3%

Over 2.5 81.4% 66.7% 1.50 +22.1%

Over 3.5 64.0% 43.5% 2.30 +47.2%

BTTS 65.9% 69.4% 1.44 -5.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 80%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob65.9%

H 78% / xG 3.2-1.2 / O2.5 81% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 8.1%

#2 2–1 7.5%

#3 3–0 7.0%

#4 4–1 6.5%

#5 2–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

RFC Seraing U213.2

O. Charleroi1.2

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 81.4% · O3.5 PROB 64.0%

Form & verdict PPG

RFC SERAING U21 · PPG 1.82

O. CHARLEROI · PPG 0.70

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

71%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.82), Away POOR (0.70) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

RFC Seraing U21 (H) 77.6%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +51.3%

Draw 12.5%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -54.4%

O. Charleroi (A) 9.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -67.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

RFC Seraing U21 face O. Charleroi in Belgium - Challenger Pro League on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives RFC Seraing U21 a 78% chance, the draw 13% and O. Charleroi 10%, so RFC Seraing U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for RFC Seraing U21 and 1.2 for O. Charleroi (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 81% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, RFC Seraing U21 are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 0.70 for O. Charleroi. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +51.3%. This match finished 5-0.

RFC Seraing U21 vs O. Charleroi Prediction— Belgium - Challenger Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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