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Seraing vs Beveren Prediction— Belgium - Challenger Pro League

Matchday 34 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 18:00

Seraing

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWDL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Beveren

PPG 2.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWWW

// Model verdict

Away 69% chance

Model probability 72.4% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-112.6%0-213.8%0-310.1%0-4+9.2%1 1-03.8%1-18.4%1-29.2%1-36.7%1-4+6.1%2 2-01.3%2-12.8%2-23.1%2-32.2%2-4+2.0%3 3-00.3%3-10.6%3-20.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 9.9% 17.2% 5.80 -42.6%

Draw 17.7% 24.4% 4.10 -27.4%

Away win 72.4% 67.6% 1.48 +7.1%

Over 2.5 54.4% 58.8% 1.70 -7.5%

Over 3.5 32.1% 36.4% 2.75 -11.7%

BTTS 43.2% 57.1% 1.75 -24.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob43.2%

A 72% / xG 0.7-2.2 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 13.8%

#2 0–1 12.6%

#3 0–3 10.1%

#4 1–2✓ 9.2%

#5 1–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Seraing0.7

Beveren2.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SERAING · PPG 1.36

BEVEREN · PPG 2.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

69%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.60) vs Home AVERAGE (1.36)

Win probability 1X2

Seraing (H) 9.9%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV -42.6%

Draw 17.7%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -27.4%

Beveren (A) 72.4%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV +7.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Seraing face Beveren in Belgium - Challenger Pro League on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Seraing a 10% chance, the draw 18% and Beveren 72%, so Beveren are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Seraing and 2.2 for Beveren (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Seraing are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 2.60 for Beveren. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +7.1%. This match finished 1-2.

Seraing vs Beveren Prediction— Belgium - Challenger Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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