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RFC Liege vs Eupen Prediction— Belgium - Challenger Pro League

Regular Season - 34 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 18:00

RFC Liege

PPG 1.87 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Eupen

PPG 1.47 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-111.5%0-26.6%0-32.5%0-4+0.9%1 1-011.5%1-113.2%1-27.6%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.6%2-17.6%2-24.4%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.5%3-12.9%3-21.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.1%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.9% 41.7% 2.40 -13.8%

Draw 28.3% 30.8% 3.25 -8.0%

Away win 35.8% 37.0% 2.70 -3.3%

Over 2.5 40.7% 56.5% 1.77 -28.0%

Over 3.5 20.3% 34.5% 2.90 -41.1%

BTTS 46.9% 63.7% 1.57 -26.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 78%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 67%

ROI 51.7%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob46.9%

D 28% / xG 1.2-1.2 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 1–0 11.5%

#3 0–1 11.5%

#4 0–0 9.9%

#5 2–1✓ 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

RFC Liege1.2

Eupen1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.3%

Form & verdict PPG

RFC LIEGE · PPG 1.87

EUPEN · PPG 1.47

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.87) > Away AVERAGE (1.47)

Win probability 1X2

RFC Liege (H) 35.9%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -13.8%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -8.0%

Eupen (A) 35.8%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -3.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

RFC Liege face Eupen in Belgium - Challenger Pro League on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives RFC Liege a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Eupen 36%, so RFC Liege are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for RFC Liege and 1.2 for Eupen (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, RFC Liege are averaging 1.87 points per game versus 1.47 for Eupen. This match finished 2-1.

RFC Liege vs Eupen Prediction— Belgium - Challenger Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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