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Lierse K. vs Lokeren-Temse Prediction— Belgium - Challenger Pro League

Matchday 34 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 18:00

Lierse K.

PPG 1.20 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLWD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Lokeren-Temse

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDDD

// Model verdict

BTTS 60% chance

Model probability 50.7% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-111.2%0-27.8%0-33.6%0-4+1.7%1 1-09.1%1-112.7%1-28.8%1-34.1%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.2%2-17.1%2-24.9%2-32.3%2-4+1.1%3 3-01.9%3-12.7%3-21.9%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.0%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.6% 31.3% 3.20 -2.1%

Draw 26.6% 29.0% 3.45 -8.2%

Away win 42.8% 48.8% 2.05 -12.3%

Over 2.5 46.0% 57.8% 1.73 -20.4%

Over 3.5 24.6% 36.4% 2.75 -32.4%

BTTS 50.7% 63.7% 1.57 -20.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 19%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob50.7%

A 43% / xG 1.1-1.4 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.7%

#2 0–1 11.2%

#3 1–0 9.1%

#4 1–2 8.8%

#5 0–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lierse K.1.1

Lokeren-Temse1.4

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.0% · O3.5 PROB 24.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LIERSE K. · PPG 1.20

LOKEREN-TEMSE · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.20), Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Lierse K. (H) 30.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -2.1%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -8.2%

Lokeren-Temse (A) 42.8%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -12.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lierse K. face Lokeren-Temse in Belgium - Challenger Pro League on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lierse K. a 31% chance, the draw 27% and Lokeren-Temse 43%, so Lokeren-Temse are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Lierse K. and 1.4 for Lokeren-Temse (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lierse K. are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.40 for Lokeren-Temse. This match finished 1-1.

Lierse K. vs Lokeren-Temse Prediction— Belgium - Challenger Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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