Villarreal vs Levante Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Spain - La Liga Regular Season - 34 Estadio de la Ceramica· Villarreal Saturday, May 2, 2026 12:00

Villarreal PPG 2.50

5-1 MISS

Levante PPG 0.81

Draw· +1.2% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Villarreal face Levante in Spain - La Liga on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Villarreal a 57% chance, the draw 25% and Levante 18%, so Villarreal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Villarreal and 1.0 for Levante (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Villarreal are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 0.81 for Levante. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.2%. This match finished 5-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 56.9%

Odds: 1.69 EV: -3.8%

Draw 25.3%

Odds: 4.00 EV: +1.2%

Away 17.8%

Odds: 4.40 EV: -21.7%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 55.0% Odds: 1.57 -13.7%

Over 3.5 32.6% Odds: 2.45 -20.1%

BTTS 54.9% Odds: 1.57 -13.8%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-0 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Villarreal

1.89

Levante

0.99

Model SuggestionHome -3.8% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -3.8% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Draw (+1.2%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5/Under 60%

BTTS/No 64%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -19.9%

Bet Hit 42% (26 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=56.9%