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Villarreal vs Levante Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 12:00

Villarreal

PPG 2.50 · HOME

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Levante

PPG 0.81 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.9% vs bookmaker-implied 59.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-15.5%0-22.7%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.6%1-110.5%1-25.2%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.0%2-19.9%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.3%3-16.3%3-23.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-14.6%4+-22.3%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.9% 59.2% 1.69 -3.8%

Draw 25.3% 25.0% 4.00 +1.2%

Away win 17.8% 22.7% 4.40 -21.7%

Over 2.5 55.0% 63.7% 1.57 -13.7%

Over 3.5 32.6% 40.8% 2.45 -20.1%

BTTS 54.9% 63.7% 1.57 -13.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 15.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.9%

H 57% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–0 10.0%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.6%

#5 0–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Villarreal1.9

Levante1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.6%

Form & verdict PPG

VILLARREAL · PPG 2.50

LEVANTE · PPG 0.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=56.9%

Win probability 1X2

Villarreal (H) 56.9%

ODDS 1.69 · IMPLIED 59.2% EV -3.8%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +1.2%

Levante (A) 17.8%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -21.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Villarreal face Levante in Spain - La Liga on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Villarreal a 57% chance, the draw 25% and Levante 18%, so Villarreal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Villarreal and 1.0 for Levante (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Villarreal are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 0.81 for Levante. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.2%. This match finished 5-1.

Villarreal vs Levante Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - La Liga Predictions