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KRC Genk B vs Jong Gent Prediction— Belgium - Challenger Pro League

Matchday 34 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 18:00

KRC Genk B

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Jong Gent

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 69% chance

Model probability 64.6% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-16.6%0-25.7%0-33.3%0-4+2.1%1 1-05.8%1-110.1%1-28.8%1-35.1%1-4+3.2%2 2-04.5%2-17.8%2-26.7%2-33.9%2-4+2.5%3 3-02.3%3-14.0%3-23.4%3-32.0%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.1%4+-21.9%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.3% 46.5% 2.15 -26.3%

Draw 23.0% 27.0% 3.70 -14.9%

Away win 42.6% 35.7% 2.80 +19.3%

Over 2.5 63.4% 67.6% 1.48 -6.2%

Over 3.5 41.3% 45.5% 2.20 -9.1%

BTTS 64.6% 71.4% 1.40 -9.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob64.6%

A 43% / xG 1.5-1.7 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 65%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.1%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–1 7.8%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 0–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

KRC Genk B1.5

Jong Gent1.7

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.4% · O3.5 PROB 41.3%

Form & verdict PPG

KRC GENK B · PPG 1.00

JONG GENT · PPG 1.40

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

Chance this pick lands

69%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.00) vs Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

KRC Genk B (H) 34.3%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -26.3%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -14.9%

Jong Gent (A) 42.6%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +19.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

KRC Genk B face Jong Gent in Belgium - Challenger Pro League on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives KRC Genk B a 34% chance, the draw 23% and Jong Gent 43%, so Jong Gent are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for KRC Genk B and 1.7 for Jong Gent (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, KRC Genk B are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.40 for Jong Gent. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +19.3%. This match finished 1-1.

KRC Genk B vs Jong Gent Prediction— Belgium - Challenger Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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