Wrexham vs Middlesbrough Prediction— England - Championship

England - Championship Regular Season - 46 Racecourse Ground· Wrexham Saturday, May 2, 2026 11:30

Wrexham PPG 1.64

2-2 MISS

Middlesbrough PPG 1.68

Draw· +6.6% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Wrexham face Middlesbrough in England - Championship on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wrexham a 33% chance, the draw 29% and Middlesbrough 38%, so Middlesbrough are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Wrexham and 1.5 for Middlesbrough (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wrexham are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.68 for Middlesbrough. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +6.6%. This match finished 2-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 33.3%

Odds: 2.60 EV: -13.4%

Draw 28.8%

Odds: 3.70 EV: +6.6%

Away 37.9%

Odds: 2.40 EV: -9.0%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 53.1% Odds: 1.62 -14.0%

Over 3.5 30.9% Odds: 2.55 -21.2%

BTTS 58.5% Odds: 1.50 -12.3%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-2 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 0-0 ✘

5th 0-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Wrexham

1.35

Middlesbrough

1.45

Model SuggestionBTTS -12.3% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -12.3% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Draw (+6.6%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5/Under 59%

BTTS/No 46%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -1.0%

Bet Hit 56% (16 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.64), Away GOOD (1.68)