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Wrexham vs Middlesbrough Prediction— England - Championship

Regular Season - 46 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 11:30

Wrexham

PPG 1.64 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Middlesbrough

PPG 1.68 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 58.5% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-18.8%0-26.4%0-33.1%0-4+1.6%1 1-08.2%1-111.9%1-28.6%1-34.2%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.5%2-18.0%2-25.8%2-32.8%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.5%3-13.6%3-22.6%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.6%4+-21.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.3% 38.5% 2.60 -13.4%

Draw 28.8% 27.0% 3.70 +6.6%

Away win 37.9% 41.7% 2.40 -9.0%

Over 2.5 53.1% 61.7% 1.62 -14.0%

Over 3.5 30.9% 39.2% 2.55 -21.2%

BTTS 58.5% 66.7% 1.50 -12.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -12.7%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 41%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob58.5%

D 29% / xG 1.4-1.5 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 8.0%

#4 0–0 6.1%

#5 0–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wrexham1.4

Middlesbrough1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

WREXHAM · PPG 1.64

MIDDLESBROUGH · PPG 1.68

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.64), Away GOOD (1.68)

Win probability 1X2

Wrexham (H) 33.3%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -13.4%

Draw 28.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +6.6%

Middlesbrough (A) 37.9%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -9.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wrexham face Middlesbrough in England - Championship on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wrexham a 33% chance, the draw 29% and Middlesbrough 38%, so Middlesbrough are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Wrexham and 1.5 for Middlesbrough (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wrexham are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.68 for Middlesbrough. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +6.6%. This match finished 2-2.

Wrexham vs Middlesbrough Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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