Today / Junior vs Deportivo Pasto

Junior vs Deportivo Pasto Prediction

Friday, May 1, 2026

Junior

PPG 1.78 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Deportivo Pasto

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.78), Away GOOD (1.75)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-18.3%0-25.2%0-32.1%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.8%1-112.2%1-27.5%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.2%2-18.9%2-25.5%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.5%3-14.3%3-22.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.2%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.5% — — —

Draw 29.3% — — —

Away win 30.2% — — —

Over 2.5 50.7% — — —

Over 3.5 28.6% — — —

BTTS 56.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob56.4%

H 40% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 0–0 6.7%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 1–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Junior1.5

Deportivo Pasto1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.6%

Form & verdict PPG

JUNIOR · PPG 1.78

DEPORTIVO PASTO · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.78), Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Junior (H) 40.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 29.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Deportivo Pasto (A) 30.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Junior face Deportivo Pasto on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Junior a 41% chance, the draw 29% and Deportivo Pasto 30%, so Junior are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Junior and 1.2 for Deportivo Pasto (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Junior are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.75 for Deportivo Pasto. This match finished 3-1.

Junior vs Deportivo Pasto Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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