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Sparta P. U19 vs Budejovice U19 Prediction— Czech-Republic - 1. Liga U19

Regular Season - 24 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 09:00

Sparta P. U19

PPG 1.82 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Budejovice U19

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-12.8%0-22.4%0-31.4%0-4+0.9%1 1-03.9%1-16.7%1-25.8%1-33.3%1-4+2.1%2 2-04.6%2-18.0%2-26.9%2-34.0%2-4+2.5%3 3-03.7%3-16.4%3-25.6%3-33.2%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-16.8%4+-25.9%4+-33.4%4+-4+2.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.0% 63.7% 1.57 -18.4%

Draw 21.4% 24.4% 4.10 -12.3%

Away win 26.6% 23.8% 4.20 +11.7%

Over 2.5 78.1% — — —

Over 3.5 59.2% 57.8% 1.73 +2.4%

BTTS 75.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 16.3%

Bet Hit 88%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob75.8%

H 52% / xG 2.4-1.7 / O2.5 78% / BTTS 76%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.0%

#2 1–1 6.7%

#3 2–2 6.9%

#4 3–1 6.4%

#5 1–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sparta P. U192.4

Budejovice U191.7

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.1% · O3.5 PROB 59.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SPARTA P. U19 · PPG 1.82

BUDEJOVICE U19 · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.82) vs P(Home)=52.0%

Win probability 1X2

Sparta P. U19 (H) 52.0%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -18.4%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -12.3%

Budejovice U19 (A) 26.6%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +11.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sparta P. U19 face Budejovice U19 in Czech-Republic - 1. Liga U19 on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sparta P. U19 a 52% chance, the draw 21% and Budejovice U19 27%, so Sparta P. U19 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Sparta P. U19 and 1.7 for Budejovice U19 (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 78% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 76% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sparta P. U19 are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.00 for Budejovice U19. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +11.7%. This match finished 2-3.

Sparta P. U19 vs Budejovice U19 Prediction— Czech-Republic - 1. Liga U19

Match Preview & Prediction

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