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Slask Wroclaw W vs Lech Poznan UAM Prediction— Poland - Ekstraliga Women

Regular Season - 19 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 10:00

Slask Wroclaw W

PPG 1.50 · HOME

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Lech Poznan UAM

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-13.5%0-22.1%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-06.9%1-18.2%1-24.9%1-32.0%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.0%2-19.6%2-25.7%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-06.2%3-17.4%3-24.4%3-31.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-06.2%4+-17.4%4+-24.4%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.4% — — —

Draw 21.5% — — —

Away win 17.1% — — —

Over 2.5 68.2% — — —

Over 3.5 46.7% — — —

BTTS 64.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 87%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob64.1%

H 61% / xG 2.3-1.2 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.6%

#2 1–1 8.2%

#3 2–0 8.0%

#4 3–1 7.4%

#5 3–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Slask Wroclaw W2.3

Lech Poznan UAM1.2

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 46.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SLASK WROCLAW W · PPG 1.50

LECH POZNAN UAM · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Slask Wroclaw W (H) 61.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Lech Poznan UAM (A) 17.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Slask Wroclaw W face Lech Poznan UAM in Poland - Ekstraliga Women on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Slask Wroclaw W a 61% chance, the draw 22% and Lech Poznan UAM 17%, so Slask Wroclaw W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Slask Wroclaw W and 1.2 for Lech Poznan UAM (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Slask Wroclaw W are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.00 for Lech Poznan UAM. This match finished 3-3.

Slask Wroclaw W vs Lech Poznan UAM Prediction— Poland - Ekstraliga Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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