Today / Jaguares de C. vs Cucuta

Jaguares de C. vs Cucuta Prediction

Friday, May 1, 2026

Jaguares de C.

PPG 1.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Cucuta

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.44) vs P(Home)=41.9%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-17.1%0-24.7%0-32.1%0-4+0.9%1 1-08.5%1-111.4%1-27.6%1-33.4%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.8%2-19.1%2-26.1%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.6%3-14.8%3-23.2%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.8%4+-21.8%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.9% — — —

Draw 27.8% — — —

Away win 30.3% — — —

Over 2.5 56.2% — — —

Over 3.5 33.8% — — —

BTTS 60.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.5%

H 42% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 0–0 5.3%

#5 1–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jaguares de C.1.6

Cucuta1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.2% · O3.5 PROB 33.8%

Form & verdict PPG

JAGUARES DE C. · PPG 1.44

CUCUTA · PPG 0.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.44) vs P(Home)=41.9%

Win probability 1X2

Jaguares de C. (H) 41.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Cucuta (A) 30.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Jaguares de C. face Cucuta on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jaguares de C. a 42% chance, the draw 28% and Cucuta 30%, so Jaguares de C. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Jaguares de C. and 1.3 for Cucuta (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jaguares de C. are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.44 for Cucuta.

Jaguares de C. vs Cucuta Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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