Today / I. Medelin vs R. Aguilas

I. Medelin vs R. Aguilas Prediction

Friday, May 1, 2026

I. Medelin

PPG 1.56 · HOME

UPCOMING

R. Aguilas

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.56) > Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-18.6%0-24.3%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.6%1-112.5%1-26.2%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.1%2-19.1%2-24.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.4%3-14.4%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.2%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.9% — — —

Draw 30.2% — — —

Away win 23.9% — — —

Over 2.5 44.3% — — —

Over 3.5 23.2% — — —

BTTS 50.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob50.2%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 44% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0 12.6%

#3 0–0 8.6%

#4 2–0 9.1%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

I. Medelin1.5

R. Aguilas1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.3% · O3.5 PROB 23.2%

Form & verdict PPG

I. MEDELIN · PPG 1.56

R. AGUILAS · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.56) > Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

I. Medelin (H) 45.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

R. Aguilas (A) 23.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

I. Medelin face R. Aguilas on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives I. Medelin a 46% chance, the draw 30% and R. Aguilas 24%, so I. Medelin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for I. Medelin and 1.0 for R. Aguilas (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, I. Medelin are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.13 for R. Aguilas.

I. Medelin vs R. Aguilas Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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