Today / Fortaleza CEIF vs A. Bucaramanga

Fortaleza CEIF vs A. Bucaramanga Prediction

Friday, May 1, 2026

Fortaleza CEIF

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

A. Bucaramanga

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-111.0%0-26.4%0-32.5%0-4+0.9%1 1-011.3%1-113.2%1-27.7%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.7%2-17.8%2-24.6%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.7%3-13.1%3-21.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.2%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.7% — — —

Draw 31.9% — — —

Away win 33.4% — — —

Over 2.5 41.9% — — —

Over 3.5 21.2% — — —

BTTS 49.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob49.9%

D 32% / xG 1.2-1.2 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 9.5%

#3 1–0 11.3%

#4 0–1 11.0%

#5 2–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fortaleza CEIF1.2

A. Bucaramanga1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.9% · O3.5 PROB 21.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FORTALEZA CEIF · PPG 1.67

A. BUCARAMANGA · PPG 0.78

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.67) vs P(Home)=34.7%

Win probability 1X2

Fortaleza CEIF (H) 34.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

A. Bucaramanga (A) 33.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Fortaleza CEIF face A. Bucaramanga on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fortaleza CEIF a 35% chance, the draw 32% and A. Bucaramanga 33%, so Fortaleza CEIF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Fortaleza CEIF and 1.2 for A. Bucaramanga (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fortaleza CEIF are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.78 for A. Bucaramanga.

Fortaleza CEIF vs A. Bucaramanga Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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