Today / Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Cali

Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Cali Prediction

Friday, May 1, 2026

Deportes Tolima

PPG 2.44 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

Deportivo Cali

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.6%0-19.8%0-24.1%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.2%1-112.8%1-25.4%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.0%2-18.4%2-23.5%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.4%3-13.7%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.7% — — —

Draw 32.3% — — —

Away win 22.1% — — —

Over 2.5 36.5% — — —

Over 3.5 17.2% — — —

BTTS 43.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob43.6%

H 46% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 11.6%

#3 1–0 15.2%

#4 2–0 10.0%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportes Tolima1.3

Deportivo Cali0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.5% · O3.5 PROB 17.2%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTES TOLIMA · PPG 2.44

DEPORTIVO CALI · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.44) vs P(Home)=45.7%

Win probability 1X2

Deportes Tolima (H) 45.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 32.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Deportivo Cali (A) 22.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportes Tolima face Deportivo Cali on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportes Tolima a 46% chance, the draw 32% and Deportivo Cali 22%, so Deportes Tolima are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Deportes Tolima and 0.8 for Deportivo Cali (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportes Tolima are averaging 2.44 points per game versus 0.88 for Deportivo Cali. This match finished 3-1.

Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Cali Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

More Football Predictions