Today / America de Cali vs D. Pereira

America de Cali vs D. Pereira Prediction

Friday, May 1, 2026

America de Cali

PPG 2.25 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

D. Pereira

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs P(Home)=61.9%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-15.8%0-22.0%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.8%1-110.4%1-23.7%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.2%2-19.3%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.9%3-15.6%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.3%4+-13.7%4+-21.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.9% — — —

Draw 25.5% — — —

Away win 12.6% — — —

Over 2.5 45.5% — — —

Over 3.5 24.2% — — —

BTTS 43.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob43.7%

H 62% / xG 1.8-0.7 / O2.5 46% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.2%

#2 1–0 14.8%

#3 1–1 10.4%

#4 0–0 8.2%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

America de Cali1.8

D. Pereira0.7

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.5% · O3.5 PROB 24.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AMERICA DE CALI · PPG 2.25

D. PEREIRA · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs P(Home)=61.9%

Win probability 1X2

America de Cali (H) 61.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

D. Pereira (A) 12.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

America de Cali face D. Pereira on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives America de Cali a 62% chance, the draw 26% and D. Pereira 13%, so America de Cali are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for America de Cali and 0.7 for D. Pereira (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, America de Cali are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 0.33 for D. Pereira. This match finished 0-2.

America de Cali vs D. Pereira Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

More Football Predictions