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Ferroviaria W vs Mixto W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Regular Season - 9 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 20:00

Ferroviaria W

PPG 2.00 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Mixto W

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=57.1%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-16.3%0-22.7%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.1%1-111.1%1-24.7%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.4%2-19.6%2-24.1%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.7%3-15.6%3-22.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-13.6%4+-21.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.1% — — —

Draw 26.7% — — —

Away win 16.2% — — —

Over 2.5 47.9% — — —

Over 3.5 26.2% — — —

BTTS 48.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -30.5%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.7%

H 57% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 48% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 1–0 13.1%

#3 2–0 11.4%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ferroviaria W1.7

Mixto W0.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.9% · O3.5 PROB 26.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FERROVIARIA W · PPG 2.00

MIXTO W · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=57.1%

Win probability 1X2

Ferroviaria W (H) 57.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Mixto W (A) 16.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ferroviaria W face Mixto W in Brazil - Brasileiro Women on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ferroviaria W a 57% chance, the draw 27% and Mixto W 16%, so Ferroviaria W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Ferroviaria W and 0.8 for Mixto W (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ferroviaria W are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.50 for Mixto W. This match finished 3-0.

Ferroviaria W vs Mixto W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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