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Girona vs Mallorca Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Regular Season - 34 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 19:00

Girona

PPG 1.38 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Mallorca

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 56.2% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-18.3%0-25.1%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.9%1-112.2%1-27.4%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.3%2-18.9%2-25.5%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.6%3-14.4%3-22.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.2%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.0% 49.5% 2.02 -17.2%

Draw 29.3% 29.9% 3.35 -1.8%

Away win 29.7% 27.8% 3.60 +6.9%

Over 2.5 50.5% 55.6% 1.80 -9.1%

Over 3.5 28.4% 33.3% 3.00 -14.8%

BTTS 56.2% 60.6% 1.65 -7.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 15.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob56.2%

H 41% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 0–0 6.8%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 1–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Girona1.5

Mallorca1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

GIRONA · PPG 1.38

MALLORCA · PPG 0.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.38) vs P(Home)=41.0%

Win probability 1X2

Girona (H) 41.0%

ODDS 2.02 · IMPLIED 49.5% EV -17.2%

Draw 29.3%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -1.8%

Mallorca (A) 29.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +6.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Girona face Mallorca in Spain - La Liga on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Girona a 41% chance, the draw 29% and Mallorca 30%, so Girona are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Girona and 1.2 for Mallorca (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Girona are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.38 for Mallorca. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +6.9%. This match finished 0-1.

Girona vs Mallorca Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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