Today / UC Dublin vs Longford Town

UC Dublin vs Longford Town Prediction

Friday, May 1, 2026

UC Dublin

PPG 2.17 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Longford Town

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.8%0-19.7%0-23.0%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.4%1-112.0%1-23.7%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.9%2-17.4%2-22.3%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.9%3-13.0%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-11.2%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.4% — — —

Draw 33.8% — — —

Away win 16.8% — — —

Over 2.5 28.2% — — —

Over 3.5 11.6% — — —

BTTS 34.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 55%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob34.3%

H 49% / xG 1.2-0.6 / U2.5 28% / NoBTTS 34%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.4%

#2 0–0 15.8%

#3 1–1 12.0%

#4 2–0✓ 11.9%

#5 0–1 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UC Dublin1.2

Longford Town0.6

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 28.2% · O3.5 PROB 11.6%

Form & verdict PPG

UC DUBLIN · PPG 2.17

LONGFORD TOWN · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.17) vs P(Home)=49.4%

Win probability 1X2

UC Dublin (H) 49.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 33.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Longford Town (A) 16.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

UC Dublin face Longford Town on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UC Dublin a 49% chance, the draw 34% and Longford Town 17%, so UC Dublin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for UC Dublin and 0.6 for Longford Town (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 28% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 34% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UC Dublin are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 0.67 for Longford Town. This match finished 2-0.

UC Dublin vs Longford Town Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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