Today / FC Schwaig vs Erlbach

FC Schwaig vs Erlbach Prediction

Friday, May 1, 2026

FC Schwaig

PPG 1.57 · HOME

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Erlbach

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.57) > Away AVERAGE (1.21)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-18.6%0-25.3%0-32.2%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.9%1-112.3%1-27.6%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.1%2-18.8%2-25.5%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.4%3-14.2%3-22.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.1%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.6% — — —

Draw 29.5% — — —

Away win 30.9% — — —

Over 2.5 50.0% — — —

Over 3.5 28.1% — — —

BTTS 56.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob56.0%

D 30% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 0–0 6.9%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 1–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Schwaig1.4

Erlbach1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

FC SCHWAIG · PPG 1.57

ERLBACH · PPG 1.21

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.57) > Away AVERAGE (1.21)

Win probability 1X2

FC Schwaig (H) 39.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 29.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Erlbach (A) 30.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Schwaig face Erlbach on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Schwaig a 40% chance, the draw 30% and Erlbach 31%, so FC Schwaig are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for FC Schwaig and 1.2 for Erlbach (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Schwaig are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.21 for Erlbach. This match finished 5-0.

FC Schwaig vs Erlbach Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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